The key to this game will be Penn State's defense against Juice Williams. If the Nittany Lions can contain him—which I believe they will with the help of a rowdy crowd—Penn State should win this game, 24-17.
Ahhh...a team that Penn State has not beat in over 10 years. Well, this HAS to be the year, right? New coach, new system, home game—everything is in Penn State’s favor.
At this point in the season we should know what to expect from this Michigan offense. Right now it is hard to say, but I don't expect this to be the high-powered offense Rich Rodriguez ran in West Virginia, at least not yet.
Steven Threet will be the starting quarterback and is a transfer from Georgia Tech who is seen more as a "pass first" QB with some mobility. Pass first is not really a Rodriguez style of offense.
The strong point of this team will be the seven returning starters on defense and a strong front seven. Michigan will rely on their defense this year to stay in games, as I don't see their offense providing much cushion at this point.
In the end, the streak should end and Penn State should find a way to win. If they can beat the spread vs. Illinois, Penn State should be able to handle the first year spread at Michigan. Given the magnitude of this game, what with a chance to finally get over the hump and beat Michigan, the crowd will be a big help in this 4:30 pm ET start game.
Again I see Daryl Clark leading this offense to a win, with a lot of help from the running game attacking the inexperienced Michigan linebacking corps. Penn State wins this game, 20-14.
@ Ohio State Buckeyes
Since joining the Big Ten in 1993, Penn State has not won in Columbus, and unfortunately all signs point to the same ol' story again. Ohio State returns one of its best teams in years. There seem to be no weaknesses on either side of the ball with 18 returning starters.
For Ohio State, the key game is @ USC on Sep. 6. It's hard to admit this, but I really want Ohio State to win that game for the sake of the Big Ten. On the off chance the Nittany Lions can pull off this upset, it will look that much better.
However, I also don't think this will be that easy of a game for Ohio State. These two teams play each other very tough, regardless of how good or bad a season each is having.
Penn State, as I have mentioned, does return a lot of starters and does have a great defensive and offensive line. This should keep Penn State in the game.
I think Ohio State will use Terrelle Pryor very effectively throughout the season, causing opposing defenses many problems by switching the style of play when he comes in, similar to what Florida did with Tebow in 2006.
In the end, I think Penn State's conservative coaching style on the road will come out in this game. I think Clark/Devlin will have some problems with this very experienced and strong Ohio State defense.
I don't think Ohio State can just check this game off as a win like many think, and I see this as a low-scoring defensive battle, as most PSU-OSU games are. Ohio State wins this one, 21-17.
@ Iowa Hawkeyes
This is a team that has underperformed the last few years. Expectations are usually pretty high, but the team cannot live up to them.
Last year, injuries to their top receiving threats left quarterback Jake Christensen without much to work with. He ended with just a 53.5 percent completion rate. Luckily for him and the running game, the offensive line is intact, and both of his favorite targets—WR Andy Brodell and TE Tony Moeaki—are healthy this year.
On the defensive side there has been much turnover, but the returners are some of the best in the Big Ten, including both tackles on the defensive line. Also, most of the new starters, including both defensive ends and both cornerbacks, did play significant time last year and were impressive.
This is a strong Iowa team that as always has the potential to be solid. However, potential and what actually happens are very different things.
Penn State’s defense should be able to contain the Iowa offense and disrupt Christensen as it did last year. If the coaching staff does not hold this team back in another important road game, the Penn State offense, which I expect to have a tough time at first, should eventually be able to pass on the first year starting cornerbacks of Iowa and use the experience at the WR position to take advantage of the secondary.
This should be another game where Clark, and a little bit of Devlin, should be able to pass and run the spread in order to soften up the front seven and let Royster, Carter, and Green close the game out in the fourth quarter. Penn State wins this one, 27-10.
Indiana Hoosiers
After a tough stretch of games against the top tier of the Big Ten, as well as being on the road for two weeks, the Nittany Lions return home and face the Hoosiers of Indiana.
Kellen Lewis is a very solid dual-threat QB and caused Penn State problems last year. However, his top target James Hardy, who abused Justin King, is now in the NFL on the Buffalo Bills.
Penn State's secondary should be able to contain the Hoosiers' WRs and will need to focus on Lewis and his legs. He is another quarterback that PSU will see that can win by running around.
The Hoosiers also return depth at the RB position. However, losing three starters on the offensive line will not help Lewis and his running backs against the strong Penn State defensive front.
The Hoosiers do return seven starters on a defense that made a lot of big plays in 2007, forcing 31 turnovers and registering 42 sacks. However, they also gave up a lot of yards (403.4 yards per game) and a lot of points (28.5 per game). This should continue again this year, and Penn State should be able to run its offense effectively in this matchup.
Penn State scored 36 points on Indiana last year, and I see a similar outcome this year. Penn State wins this game, 38-21.
Michigan State Spartans
Here is a team that is always hard to predict: always has talent, always starts strong, but seems to find a way to underperform at the end of the season. Michigan State beat Penn State last year when Penn State blew a huge halftime lead. Penn State will look to avenge that loss, and it will help being at home this year.
Several key pieces of the MSU offense have left for the NFL: running back Jehuu Caulcrick, who ran for 872 yards and 21 scores last season; WR Devin Thomas, who accounted for 2,590 all-purpose yards and was drafted in the second round of this year's NFL Draft by the Washington Redskins; and TE Kellen Davis, who had 32 catches for 513 yards and six touchdowns as a senior and was drafted in the fifth round by the Chicago Bears.
This is a lot to replace, but luckily QB Brian Hoyer does return and has a full year of experience under his belt. There are many new names that have impressed the staff during the offseason. If someone can step up on offense, Hoyer should be successful again, as he proved to be a formidable college quarterback.
On the defensive side, MSU is another team that made big plays on defense last year but still gave up 26.6 ppg. They lose several key playmakers this year, leading me to believe that things won't get much better. Penn State lost 35-31 last year, and until the fourth quarter was scoring a lot at will.
With key losses on both sides of the ball, as well as this game being at Penn State this year, I don't see Michigan State pulling off the upset. Penn State remembers what happened last year and avenges that loss with a solid 45-20 victory.
With this analysis, I have predicted Penn State to go 11-1. I also predict a total of 399 points without the bowl game included. Last year they scored 394 points with the bowl game included, so I do expect this offense to be more effective than last year.
I do worry about the Purdue game the most because of the letdown factor. Of course Wisconsin could be a problem as well, being that it is a road game at a site where Penn State does struggle, but the trap game vs. Purdue is my greatest concern. If Penn State does lose more than the one game to Ohio State, I would say these are the two teams I would expect the losses to come from.
9-3 is the worst I see this team going and is the lowest number of victories that I would be "OK" with, although I think this is at the very least a 10-win team.
Of course there is always a chance that somehow the upset in Columbus is pulled off, in which case I will be very happy to be wrong.
There is also the chance of injuries or other crazy things that can throw this all off. Let's hope that does not happen.
With Ohio State being undefeated, the media will be forced to put them in the BCS Championship game again, although very reluctantly after the last two years. I see Ohio State facing a team from the Big 12, probably Big Game Bob and his Sooners.
Oklahoma will be on a mission this year to make up for the last two disappointing ends to their seasons and return a solid team and experience at the quarterback position, which is key in college.
This leaves Penn State at 11-1 and second in the Big Ten, and they will get a Rose Bowl bid to face the Trojans of Southern California. This would match up two of the best defensive lines in the nation and feature two teams with a first year starter on offense.
It is hard to pick against Pete Carroll in bowl games, especially in their own backyard. I would begrudgingly say that the USC defense will lead them to victory over Penn State, although Joe Paterno is a great bowl game coach when he has six weeks to prepare and does have the most bowl wins in history.
I get the sense that this game would be closer than most think right now, but I do not want to show too much bias and say Penn State will win the Rose bowl.
My prediction is 11-2 and a loss in the Rose Bowl to USC, a prediction that forecasts a successful season but also leaves some room for me being wrong in a positive direction, although not that much room indeed.
The next question is, what will Joe do following this 2008 campaign when his contract runs out?